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-msg (Independent Analyst/Advisor/Consultant)

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msg Publicly Traded Company Analysis -- Q4 2018

Q4 2018 Overall Insights


  • Triopoly continues to thrive -- platforms with logged in users continue to outperform the market and steal share from everyone else

  • Those platforms with self-service modules will have a better chance of winning today and in the long-term -- many of these companies seem to be building self serve platforms

  • DTC video offerings are everywhere in the ecosystem -- though no way they all survive long-term, Netflix and Amazon are the two clear leaders, with Hulu third

  • Digital impressions/inventory seems to be up across the board as CPM’s decrease -- there is too much supply in the ecosystem and this will only get worse until we have real consolidation

  • Linear TV ad sales revenue (excluding political) is flat as ratings decrease offset by significant CPM increase -- no way linear TV revenue holds as CTV revenue grows

  • CTV advertising is still extremely strong across many companies like Roku, The Trade Desk, Telaria, Rubicon and many traditional Linear TV companies especially Hulu -- CTV should continue to be strong for years to come

  • Some publishers are doing well on the digital ad sales front like NYTimes (again) and IAC’s Dot Dash

  • Agencies still continue to struggle as the ecosystem evolves

  • More focus on performance advertising and attribution across the board

  • The Trade Desk continues to shine as the independent player, I foresee The Trade Desk being the DSP for CTV with Roku being the TV operating system. Some big media company, like Comcast, should buy The Trade Desk NOW!!!

  • Only Netflix and The Trade Desk mentioned gaming/esports in their earnings call -- all the large media companies are missing a huge opportunity and a real threat over the next 3-5 years

  • 5G will change all media consumption once it is widely available

  • Excited for the Pintrest to IPO and learn about their advertising business