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msg Publicly Traded Company Analysis -- Q4 2018
Q4 2018 Overall Insights
Triopoly continues to thrive -- platforms with logged in users continue to outperform the market and steal share from everyone else
Those platforms with self-service modules will have a better chance of winning today and in the long-term -- many of these companies seem to be building self serve platforms
DTC video offerings are everywhere in the ecosystem -- though no way they all survive long-term, Netflix and Amazon are the two clear leaders, with Hulu third
Digital impressions/inventory seems to be up across the board as CPM’s decrease -- there is too much supply in the ecosystem and this will only get worse until we have real consolidation
Linear TV ad sales revenue (excluding political) is flat as ratings decrease offset by significant CPM increase -- no way linear TV revenue holds as CTV revenue grows
CTV advertising is still extremely strong across many companies like Roku, The Trade Desk, Telaria, Rubicon and many traditional Linear TV companies especially Hulu -- CTV should continue to be strong for years to come
Some publishers are doing well on the digital ad sales front like NYTimes (again) and IAC’s Dot Dash
Agencies still continue to struggle as the ecosystem evolves
More focus on performance advertising and attribution across the board
The Trade Desk continues to shine as the independent player, I foresee The Trade Desk being the DSP for CTV with Roku being the TV operating system. Some big media company, like Comcast, should buy The Trade Desk NOW!!!
Only Netflix and The Trade Desk mentioned gaming/esports in their earnings call -- all the large media companies are missing a huge opportunity and a real threat over the next 3-5 years
5G will change all media consumption once it is widely available
Excited for the Pintrest to IPO and learn about their advertising business