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-msg (Independent Analyst/Advisor/Consultant)

matthew.scott.goldstein@gmail.com  

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What I Saw Happen -- Q1 2018


Platforms -- the Facebook, Google and Amazon Triopoly

  • Facebook has peaked, we hit the tipping point hurting society, monopoly -- see POV below

  • Facebook should do a better job monetizing App inventory for publishers

  • Amazon does the best job monetizing app inventory for publishers

  • Snap made more revenue in Q4 by increasing ads 4X YoY

  • Snap lost a key product person and Twitter lost COO -- not good for the second tier platforms

  • Oath will never take on Google, Facebook and Amazon for advertising $'s, sorry


  • Marketing – the move to Multi-touch attribution

  • MTA, DDA -- multi touch attribution and data drive attribution are so critical for all marketers

  • Marketers need to build top and bottom of funnel to survive long term

  • For Display I may just buy retargeting and not prospecting just move all prospecting to Facebook

  • How do I really measure video ad performance? What is the KPI for video?

  • Some CPG companies like Neutrogena are starting to sell directly to the consumer alleviating the middle-man -- Amazon, Walmart, Target, Walgreens, etc..

  • Marketing in your sales organization is your top selling sales person, if done right

  • Would Android and Apple ever not allow the FB app in their respective ecosystem because it does not adhere the strict enough privacy policies? Just asking.

  • Agencies & Consulting Houses -- yes, I am combing them

  • Publishers should spend more time with consulting houses -- seeing how they operate and how they are helping marketers

  • WPP stock down, again, now at 2013 levels

  • Agency traders are typically buying the cheapest media possible at the highest margins sometimes neglecting the needs and wants of the advertiser

  • Agencies still take the easiest way to run impressions and generate high margins -- even as marketers bring more buying in-house

  • Publishers – trying to figure out GDPR & new streams of revenue

  • Again, need to go beyond ad sales

  • I still love PODCASTS, best stuff out there by FAR -- after a good podcast I walk away learning something

  • Publishers need to eat their own dog food -- that is work on affiliate deals and learn what it takes to sell products online

  • Publishers are not good at being creative agencies, they need to work together more often to figure out this new branded content business

  • Captain obvious here, but front door traffic for publishers will always win in the long run

  • A standardized publisher taxonomy may need to be important again, especially in light of GDPR

  • SEO is popular again for publishers and Audio SEO is coming next

  • Publishers who still have a strong Direct sale business need to do a better job of matching the advertisers KPI to ad products of the publisher

  • Every publisher needs to hire more analysts, many more analysts

  • Ad Tech – also trying to figure out GDPR

  • Still waiting for the consolidation to happen, will the fallout of GDPR will make this consolidation happen faster

  • Are we all now at a 1st price auction for everyone but ADX?

  • I still love the identity consortium -- though they should use phone numbers as the link

  • Blockchain may impact Nielsen first – decentralized database of TV viewing habits

  • In a down market do companies stop payment of IAB etc. Does the IAB really do anything meaningful these days?

  • I love the Brave Browser and what it could mean for the industry

  • A pov on Facebook -- wrote this in mid-January

  • Facebook is not good for the world. Facebook is too addictive with too many bad things happening on the platform. Russia, the election, fake news, etc.

  • We need to make Facebook better for the world by decreasing the power of the company. Facebook is hurting society.

  • Facebook should not wait till it gets worse or the government comes in and acts.

  • Stock would go from $150 to $90 overnight, then rebound over time. Plus expenses would probably double bringing margins down substantially to more reasonable levels.

  • The world would benefit from this in the long run.

  • Here are some suggestions.

  • verify all 6 million+ advertisers -- make them show up in person to sign up to advertiser on the platform

  • use phone numbers as a verification tool not email address which are a dime a dozen

  • review all ads for all 6 million+ advertisers always -- make advertiser pay to be in the front of the queue if they want

  • limit the amount of data that FB 6 million+ advertisers can use; right now it is just too good and too granular and therefore too potentially dangerous

  • limit usage to 2 hours per day per person on weekdays and 3 hours per person on weekends, especially if you are under 18

  • allow the user to adjust the newsfeed algorithm person by person as they want it; go from centralized to decentralized

  • allow a subscription of $4.99 per month that will have no ads and not allow FB to use my data

  • admit the platform is additive, use TV advertising and show ways to curb usage

  • voluntarily divest of Instagram and WhatsApp and promise no more acquisitions over the next 5 years

  • hire an internal team of 100 people who kick the tires every day looking to exploit the platform


  • 15 ideas/jobs for the future that are closely related to ad tech -- if you are trying to get out of ad tech, go to one of these

  • Blockchain -- Po.et as an example, replace Nielsen, decentralized database, is Blockchain real and can you make a business out of it long term

  • Podcasts -- Anything podcast related – ad insertion in particular, love the Pandora acquisition of AdsWizz

  • DTC -- Any Direct to Consumer (DTC) business, razors, mattresses, video like Netflix or Hulu, food, etc. and the lifetime value of the customers for these companies

  • Data warehousing or visualization – Domo, Looker, Tableau, GoodData, Qlik, Business Objects, etc.

  • SEO -- Never going away still very relevant

  • Voice engine search optimization -- will be important call it VSEO

  • Multi-touch attribution – Neustar and GA360 , this critical for marketers, as last click overstates many marketing channels

  • Voice device monetization – Siri, Alexa and Google – though how do advertisers use this new channel?

  • Outsourced engineering resources – we all need more programmers, not touching the core product by tangential pieces of the business

  • Benchmarking -- Across ad sales and other aspects of the business – how do I know if I am doing well?

  • Triopoly -- Work for Facebook or Google or Amazon , especially Google these days :-)

  • Consulting Houses -- Work for a top consulting house specializing in Tech, Adverting, Marketing, Systems, etc.

  • Agency -- Work for an agency and help them survive, they need smart people more than ever

  • Salesforce – Become an expert, never going every company will always need sales teams

  • TV – Not going away for the big guys – CBS, NBC, Disney, Turner, Scripps, etc.