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What I Saw Happen -- Q2 2018
Overall -- the move to DTC is happening
Direct to Consumer (DTC) is still the place to be in this new brave world, though will it last and is there consumer fatigue
GDPR was a non-issue for most US based companies, for now
Most companies spend so much time living quarter-to-quarter/month-to-month and very little time thinking about next year, and more importantly, the next 3 to 5 years
Most people don’t care about privacy
Platforms continue to win, though issues occurring
American consumers are moving to a small number of relationships were they pay a monthly fee in all categories -- entertainment, food, clothing
Self-driving cars will change the world, though it is a generation plus away
Year over year Direct Sales for Q2 down 5-10% for the UDS based display publishers (msg aGaDdo estimate)
Global economy will not be stronger in 2019 vs 2018; have we hit a peak?
Platforms/Aggregators -- the Facebook, Google and Amazon Triopoly continues to thrive
Facebook will still grow, it has the BEST data
Facebook does not sell data they just hoard it, massage it and lend it to advertisers for amazing targeting
Google, Facebook and Amazon will eventually only supply marketers viewable ad impressions though each will have a slightly different definition of viewability
Google seems to be on the sidelines as Facebook continues runs into walls at least once a week during the quarter
If Congress can't ask Zuckerberg intelligent questions about Facebook, then how they can Congress regulate Facebook?
Mark Zuckerberg should hire either Obama (Barack or Michelle) to be the Chairman of Facebook
One of the big tech companies will buy Roku, Pandora, Spotify and/or Sonos
Many acquisitions are Active now: T-Mobile/Sprint; AT&T/Time Warner; Disney/Fox; CBS/Viacom; Discovery/Scripps; Comcast/Sky -- All because of the power of Google/Amazon/Facebook/Apple/Netflix
Twitter wants to be acquired by Disney
Snap will not make it long-term will need to be acquired to thrive
Amazon, Google and Facebook will all fight one another it is inevitable as an example Amazon is trying to figure out search
Amazon passes $1 trillion market cap first
Everywhere that Amazon bumps up against another company, Amazon wins
YouTube has about $10 billion in advertising revenue and because of brand safety issues did not go up in 2017
If Facebook divests Instagram and Google divests of YouTube then we have real advertising competitors to the triopoly giving us five companies not three
The EU has not been able to produce a top tech or media company like Google, Facebook, Amazon or Netflix; partly because of too much regulation -- though Spotify should soon be on this list.
Pinterest year end revenue was around $470 million, which was below internal projections
What happened with eBay?
I like the AT&T media acquisition strategy much more than that of Verizon
Voice-controlled products like the Amazon Echo are taking off -- the Echo’s installed base in the U.S. grew from 20 million in the third quarter of 2017 to more than 30 million in the fourth quarter
Marketing -- complicated out there for Marketers
Still need to push for MTA/DDA, in today's world last click attribution is just silly
Intel recently bought programmatic buying in the house just in the United States primarily to get access to all the raw data
Marketers spend more on Amazon as Amazon increases share
CRM files are the key to best ad spend ROI, CRM files uploaded to walled garden is best marketing ever
The CPM value in programmatic is linked to identity
A marketers job is to help drive growth for the company
Direct to Advertisers (DTC) always need new marketing channels to test -- they start with Facebook and Google for DR then go offline for Brand building like TV and outdoor; though are we seeing brand fatigue in this new category
Advertising world continuously moving from Brand to Measurable Direct Response (DR)
Seems like CMO’s across the board are starting to step up and drive more of the business
If you’re a CMO, you need to be better friends with your CIO
Agencies & Consulting Houses -- still powerful, though shifting power away from agencies
Prediction -- Accenture buys WPP and the consultants come in and fix the WPP agency
Agencies have just lost their way -- they need to reinvent themselves
Cannes will be slow this year vs. previous years, only real companies will attend with attendance down probably 25% or so and return to reality
WPP will not be broken up and will stay and be very centralized
Agencies are starting to focus on the power of creativity in the advertising ecosystem
Martin Sorrell’s new agency entity will not make it -- too much competition and will never be 100% analytically focused like agencies need to be today to be successful
Publishers should spend more time with consulting houses -- seeing how they operate and how they are helping marketers
The biggest threat of agencies looms from consulting firms, which used Cannes to flex their muscles.
Marketers shift in priorities to first-party data means clients will inevitably have more direct control of their marketing as it becomes more programmatic-led and in-house
Publishers -- pushing programmatic harder than ever
Q2 Direct revenue down again looks like Q3 will be down as well -- each Quarter is down 5 to 10% Year over Year
Publisher still in the Direct and Branded Content business need to figure out how to better use Salesforce
Podcasts are amazing, though need better monetization engine than what we have today
Content that informs and inspires and gets people to share is Good
Love what Vox is doing, going deep with key verticals -- like Food, Real Estate, Tech, etc.
Advertisers put $314 million into podcast ads in the U.S. last year. Very small compared to things advertisers care about. Like TV — $68.5 billion — or internet search ads — $22.8 billion — or internet video ads — $11.9 billion. Facebook alone did $39.9 billion last year. And even radio generated $17.6 billion in ad spend last year
A publisher's long term revenue mix should be 1/3 revenue subscription 1/3 revenue advertising 1/3 other -- e-commerce and events aspirational
if you are going to work my publisher in today's world -- make sure the publisher has a strong subscription product
Too much CHURN in the Branded Content world
Every publisher needs a VP of User Experience in 2019+
Direct TV is using ATT type data to garner 3 to 5 times CPM than that of a traditional Turner show
Will contextually targeted advertising come back in vogue
Publishers are still struggling with how to set up the sales and sales operations roles and responsibilities
Too many publishers rented or borrowed traffic from Facebook as opposed to building an audience through the front door
So many publishers rushed into the agency business over the years and quickly realized it wasn’t that great, especially the low margins
Ad Tech -- slowing down as it consolidates
Blockchain is just really transparency, not sure there is an ad tech usage of the technology
We need an old school ad network light of GDPR delivering banner ads with no cookies, bedrock media
Identity is the future and tech needs to figure this out to survive and prosper
Consolidation will happen soon, though i have been saying this for over a year
CTV is and will be huge; it is a race for those not names Google, Facebook or Amazon to compete and grow
Ad tech layoffs are happening
Do we need a DSP for the small business?
AT&T buys Appnexus and turns the Appnexus DSP to a self serve model for buying CTV -- Turner ads on Direct TV to start
Unfortunately, the layoffs are starting in ad tech, will hit a peak soon, then more consolidation
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Bonus 1 -- 15 industries of the future that are closely related to Ad Tech -- if you are trying to get out of Ad Tech, move to one of these
Direct to Consumer -- Any Direct to Consumer (DTC) business, razors, mattresses, video like Netflix or Hulu, food, etc. and the lifetime value of the customers for these companies
Voice and Podcasts -- Siri, Alexa and Google – though how do advertisers use this new voice enabled channel. ad insertion in particular, love the Pandora acquisition of AdsWizz. Voice search optimization
Data warehousing/Data visualization – Domo, Looker, Tableau, GoodData, Qlik, Business Objects, Datorama, etc.
SEO -- Search Engine Optimization is never going away it is still very relevant, with voice SEO next
Multi-touch attribution – Neustar and GA360 , this critical for marketers, as last click overstates many marketing channels
Outsourced engineering resources – we all need more programmers, not touching the core product by tangential pieces of the business
Benchmarking -- Across ad sales and other aspects of the business – how do I know if I am doing well?
Triopoly -- Work for Facebook, Google or Amazon. They are all in great long term positions, with Spotify and Roku in the background
Consulting Houses/Agencies -- Work for a top consulting house specializing in Tech, Advertising, Marketing, Systems, etc. or work for an agency and help them survive, they need smart people more than ever, though try to find a new breed analytical one vs a holding company
Salesforce – Become an expert in CRM, never going every company will always need a sales teams
TV/Connected TV – Data-enabled and addressable is coming. Not going away for the big guys – CBS, NBC, Disney, Turner, Scripps, etc. I also love Roku in this space.
eSports/Gambling -- Advertising in esports. Lots of room for growth. Maybe add in sports gambling her as well. Maybe eSports analytics or measurement
Drones -- all related to Drones maybe even Drone law?
Driverless Cars -- Will be a huge industry though definitely a generation away
Retail -- as an example, every retailer needs a CDP (customer data platform), a CDP is like a DMP with better, 1st party data
Bonus 2 -- An interview with Rob Daniels who left Ad Tech for better paths and is now running sales for a SAS company selling Ed Tech
Robert has been in Ad Tech since 2000 (he was at Advertising.com for 6 ½ years and then ran sales for ContextWeb) but was concerned about the job prospects in AdTech now and in the future
He was previously the EVP of Sales for OwnerIQ from 2009 - 2017
He looked at interviewing as a full-time job
Interviewed with 40+ companies over a 90 day period from November 2017 - January 2018
Spoke with 60+ recruiters
He was intrigued to get into more of a SaaS/software sale in a new industry outside of media
Many companies rejected him saying he did not have enough SaaS experience
Others were intrigued about the high growth he had achieved at OwnerIQ and ContextWeb leading their sales teams
He now runs sales for DataCamp a leading online learning platform in the data science field
DataCamp is a leading education technology player and sells annual subscriptions to businesses
He misses the people in media and the friends he made but truly enjoys being in a new field
Bonus 3 -- Appnexus becomes the first self-serve FREE DSP for CTV
AT&T uses the Appnexus DSP to go full serv-serve
This new DSP will be FREE
All Appnexus engineers then focus on the new and improved DSP
The Appnexus DSP then allows access to all the Direct TV Local spots via the new Appnexus DSP
The Appnexus DSP then then adds in all Turner spots via Direct TV via the new Appnexus DSP
Appnexus becomes the first self-serve FREE DSP for CTV
Not a bad move, IMHO, though would The Trade Desk be a better yet more expensive DSP acquisition
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What I saw happen archives
Links to all previous versions
2018
V14 -- Q3 2018 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1faNYxQmiAyI0Y9Zz8olNl5VQGueJSg2-KHN5yRUT6bw/edit
V13 -- Q2 2018 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YU7cmaYRJZT8EYyxk_1mL3pVcb2X5eo9LB8qxtLXCVE/edit
V12 -- Q1 2018 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1lfj5WyzCqRVLCob_xAHztSzmDuzMtASQ1XVYL7c7Ld8/edit
2017
V11 -- Q4 2017 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MjMQ-WYlpk4-B9FQm6ZoXJgGMrbCn67w3UcOrXC3SMM/edit
V10 -- Q3 2017 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ukIMeykiUxuP69rAHblQBjwZi-nZRVwNwRMs0Zi55iY/edit
V9 -- Q2 2017 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YlbYDGAot6QJ4q-AH3q0eaM_LRviDMirm4PyX9SuDHc/edit
V8 -- Q1 2017 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ASKiIy8Aef2sA1OhIYkFFNbgKEh8TxUSgOTz-2ao7DA/edit
2016
V7 -- Q4 2016 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MyvWKNG8CyvT_8tw7QQwf3is93F5t9AJuJEZm2Jcl4A/edit
V6 -- Q3 2016 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1D5WvVQD9chNbd3jRe40BV_8QKsOuNAH39HDs5W72gC8/edit
V5 -- Q2 2016 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wdvjZsvYXeI5cQHTacC1y--cfcfHtC157g5SkRTXtBo/edit
V4 -- Q1 2016 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1k95jh3E6NQ5CZiZ5Ommtvbgvrofnpox702fYl94QF5E/edit
2015
V3 -- Q4 2015 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1C6Z0RRzMSzXq3qhkxo-FxlrAeoan1G6SK23QIsIjRYw/edit
V2 -- Q3 2015 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gfAdBSx-IReHHKqenjA4SxHaLULjv60NGUEVpWbQGC0/edit
V1 -- Q2 2015 -- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Bzj681ehRXH0FDuDoBQVuBCfzVwIpv-3Tgp-0znLlAU/edit
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If you made it this far, feel free to send me some feedback -- matthew.scott.goldstein@gmail.com
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